Evaluation of Electric Vehicle R&D Project Based on Real Option Theory —In the Case of TESLA

To evaluate the electric vehicle (EV) R&D project, the uncertainty of the project was handled with real option theory (ROT), then an electric vehicle (EV) R&D project valuation model was built based on Black-Scholes option pricing formula. TESLA was studied with the model as a typical case, and its R&D expenditure was verified. Studies have shown that ROT method can handle the uncertainty of EV R&D projects preferably, and can reflect the value of the flexible decision; therefore it is better than net present value (NPV). Numerical simulation shows that a high-end EV R&D project's value is around 230 million in a typical situation.