TLE Data Propagation Error Analysis of Space Debris

The outlier disposal and analysis method of two-line elements (TLE) data propagation errors were put forward for the error problem in the collision warning work. The error analysis results and their varying patterns were given for different prediction time of ISS. The normality was analyzed and the suggestions of the time lead for the collision warning were given combined with engineering application. The results demonstrated that the outlier disposal method is valid and the assumption of zero mean and the normality is not suitable. The time lead of three days is suggested based on the error analysis results.