Forecasting the Demand of Coal Investment in China Based on System Dynamics Approach

Coal investment involves numerous sections, including exploration, explitation, mining, renovation, inventory etc. The dynamic interactions with complex exist within the investment system. This paper uses the system dynamics approach to forecast the coal investment demand of China during the years of 2006—2050. The results indicate that, in the 11<sup<th</sup< Five-Year Plan period (2006—2010), the overall coal investment demand may flourish in China; but from the 12<sup<th</sup< Five-Year period, coal investment demand may see a gradual decline with ever-decreasing speed. Having the investment structure in view, the infrastructure invesment of large and medium coal mines accounts for the main part of the total coal invesment (62%~64%), followed by the renovation investment of large and medium coal mines (28%~29%), exploratory development investment (5%~6%), and small coal mine investment (1%~4%).