Method of Fuzzy Combination Forecasting

Aimed against the uncertainty in forecasting problems, a method of fuzzy combination forecasting is proposed whereby the outcome of combination forecasting is expanded to a confidence interval. By utilizing the theory of confidence interval and the concept of fuzzy number, the outcome of observation and forecasting are transformed into fuzzy numbers. Aimed at maximizing the imitation degree, a model of fuzzy programming is set up to calculate the combination-weighted coefficient. The method not only has the advantages that other ways of combination forecasting share, but it also expands the outcome of forecasting to a confidence interval, which is proved to be effective by an example.