基于协整理论的浮动车行程时间修正模型

Error Correction Model of Travel Time for Floating Car Data Based on Co-Integration Theory

  • 摘要: 以牌照识别数据为基础,将计量经济学中的协整理论与误差修正模型应用于数据融合技术,建立基于协整理论的浮动车行程时间修正模型. 以上海市高架路为例进行分析,证实了浮动车数据与牌照识别数据之间的协整关系,结果说明浮动车数据的短期波动受到了长期均衡与短期失衡的作用.

     

    Abstract: The speed for floating car data cannot reflect the actual conditions of traffic flow due to the errors of map-matching algorithm and lack of data samples, which can be solved by data fusion method. An error correction model of floating car travel time based on co-integration theory is constructed by reference to the license plate recognition data, in which co-integration theory and error correction model from econometrics area are applied to data fusion. A case on the elevated roads in Shanghai is provided to reveal the meaning of the parameters in the proposed model. Long-term equilibrium and short-term imbalance are analyzed to explore their effect on the fluctuation of travel time, and their interrelation between each other in terms of parameters' variation with time.

     

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