基于开行距离的铁路旅客候车时间分布规律

A Distribution Model on Railway Passengers Waiting Time Based on Train Operation Distance

  • 摘要: 铁路旅客候车时间分布规律是研究铁路旅客集散行为特征的基础. 基于北京南站旅客平均候车时间与列车开行距离正相关,研究列车开行距离对旅客候车时间分布的影响. 针对7组不同开行距离列车的旅客候车时间,运用对数正态分布模型进行拟合研究,发现参数 μσ 与列车开行距离 l 分别服从线性函数和对数函数关系并拟合标定,建立了关于开行距离的旅客候车时间分布函数 g(t)=ξ(l). 将该模型应用于候车室(厅)旅客到达强度预测,结果表明列车开行距离之间的差异性可影响铁路客运站旅客到达强度,验证了该模型的有效性.

     

    Abstract: Railway passengers waiting time distribution (WTD) is theoretical basis for studying passengers'distribution characteristic. Passengers waiting time at Beijing south station shows a positive correlation between the average waiting time and the train operation distance. Train operation distances were divided into seven groups according to different distances. Each group was fitted with lognormal distribution function, and revealed parameters μ and σ obey respectively linear and logarithm functional relationship with train operation distance l. Then, based on train operation distance, an improved passengers WTD function g(t)=ξ(l) was established. The model was applied in forecasting the number of passengers arriving at waiting rooms. The results reflected the otherness of train operation distances could provide a theoretical basis for optimizing the railway passengers' arrivingstrength.

     

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