水文预报中的改进MISP方法

MODIFIED MISP METHOD IN HYDROLOGICAL PREDICTION

  • 摘要: E.Todini于1977年提出的MISP方法被广泛应用于缺少先验知识情况下同时估计模型的参数和状态。但是这种方法收敛速度很慢且易趋向发散。本文分析了有关收敛问题的原因,指出在原MISP方法中不合适的公式被用来自适应估计测量噪声协方差阵及均值。本文提出了一种基于新息加速收敛速度的方法江并提出了一个新的公式来估计测量噪声协方差阵。人工和实际数据模拟的结果都表明改进MISP方法克服了原MISP方法收敛的困难并达到了一个相当高的收敛速度。

     

    Abstract: MISP method as proposed by E,Todini in 1977 is currently used to estimate aarameters and states simultaneously with a deficiency of piori knowladge. This method has an inherent slow rate of convergence and a trend of divergence. This paper analyzes such convergence problem and points out that unsuitable formulas are used in adapting measurement noise covariance matrix in the original MISP method. The paper presents a method based on an innovation to accelerate the rate of convergence and proposes a new formala to estimate the measunement noise covariance matrix. Results of simulations with artifical pnd actual data show that the modified MISP method has overcome the couverg-euce difficulties in the original MISP method aud achieved a much higher rate of couvergeuce

     

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