西藏色拉滑坡时序InSAR二维形变反演与预测

Two-Dimensional Deformation Inversion with Time-Series InSAR and Prediction of Sela Landslide in Tibet

  • 摘要: 针对西藏贡觉县色拉滑坡,采用小基线集技术获取滑坡一维视线向形变结果,通过多维小基线集技术计算滑坡二维东西向与垂直向形变速率与时间序列形变,结果表明色拉滑坡以东西向形变为主且滑坡前缘特征点累积位移超过100 mm;并将特征点累积形变与地区降雨量进行对比分析,发现每年6月−9月期间滑坡前缘受强降雨影响形变速率加快从而牵引滑坡中后部分加速形变. 采用长短期记忆网络模型对滑坡特征点时间序列进行预测分析,预测结果显示周期性和缓慢形变可获得恰当的预测结果,对于剧烈形变的特征点符合其运动趋势.所得结果可为金沙江流域类似滑坡灾害预警提供参考.

     

    Abstract: The Jinsha river is the upstream section of the Yangtze river located in the mountainous region of western China. Due to complex topography and frequent disasters, it often endangers people's lives and properties as well as cause serious damage to infrastructure, Timely identification of the feature and patterns of landslide deformation is conducive to the prevention and early warning of landslide disasters. Firstly, the one-dimensional line-of-sight deformation results were obtained based on the small baseline subsets (SBAS) technique for the Sela landslide in Gongjue county, Tibet, and then, the deformation rates and time series deformation of the two-dimensional deformation in the east-west direction and vertical direction were calculated with the multidimensional small baseline subsets (MSBAS) technique. The results show that the Sela landslide mainly produces in east-west deformation and the cumulative deformation of the feature point on landslide front edge can exceed 100 mm. Comparing and analyzing the time series deformation and regional rainfall, the deformation rate of the landslide front edge was found to be accelerated due to heavy rainfall from June to September each year, pulling the middle and rear parts of the landslide accelerated deformation. Finally, a long short-term memory (LSTM) model was used to predict and analyze the time series deformation of landslide, providing the appropriate prediction results with both periodic and slow-moving deformation case, and the points in the severe deformation and also in accordance with their motion trends. The obtained results can provide a reference for the early warning of similar landslide disasters in the valley of Jinsha River.

     

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