Abstract:
As the main body of local administration and the link between the upper and lower levels, provinces urgently need to rely on local resource endowments to build a new power system with new energy as the main body and plan the path of provincial emission abatement. Therefore, this paper, by combining power system capacity expansion planning with hour-level high resolution operation simulation provided a low-carbon transition path for local power systems, and analyzed a province in southern China as an example. so as to provide scientific support for China's energy system transformation, new power system construction and local power system emission reduction path planning, helping to achieve the dual carbon goal.The results show that: the transformation of the provincial power system needs to grasp the rhythm and intensity of the development of new energy and traditional energy. (1) The power system of this province will reach its carbon peak in 2030 and carbon neutralist in 2060, with a peak of about 300 million tons. (2) In 2060, the installed capacity of non-fossil energy of the new power system in the province will account for 86.40%, reaching 171.027 2GW, of which nuclear energy will account for 26.18%, followed by photovoltaic and gas power, and coal power will remain 1.26%. (3) The total cost of the new power system in 2060 will be 2.8 trillion yuan in the province, 33 times the investment in 2022, of which operation and maintenance costs and investment costs accounted for 29.53% and 21.54% respectively. It is suggested that the deployment of renewable energy, external power transfer and energy storage should be optimized, the establishment of capacity market mechanism should be explored, and cross-provincial and cross-regional electricity trading should be improved to achieve the goal of carbon neutrality before 2060.