政策不确定性与重污染企业创新——来自废水国控重点监测企业的证据

    Policy Uncertainty and the Innovation of Heavy Polluting Firms—Evidence from National Control and Key Monitoring Firms of Wastewater

    • 摘要: 以2015年京津冀、长三角、珠三角地区的废水国控重点监测企业为研究对象,从政策不确定性视角出发,利用官员更替作为“准自然实验”,从理论和经验两个层面考察了政策不确定性对重污染企业创新的影响。研究发现,政策不确定性会显著抑制重污染企业创新。这一发现在考虑政策不确定性的内生性、样本的组内相关性以及更替频率的潜在冲击等因素之后,依然稳健。从企业和城市两个维度的进一步研究发现,国有企业正向调节政策不确定性与重污染企业创新之间的关系,表明国有企业具有较强的抵御政策不确定性风险的能力;同时,城市工业化发展水平越高,政策不确定性对重污染企业创新的负向影响越显著,表明政策不确定性不利于高工业化发展地区的企业创新。

       

      Abstract: Taking national control and key monitoring firms of wastewaterfrom the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta regions in 2015 as research object, and using official turnover as a "quasi-natural experiment", the impact of policy uncertainty on innovation of heavy polluting firmswas examinedfrom theoretical and empirical levels. The results indicate that policy uncertainty will significantly reduce innovation in heavily polluting companies. The conclusions remain robust after considering factors such as the endogeneity of policy uncertainty, intragroup correlation, and the potential impact of turnover frequency. From the two dimensions of enterprise and city, further research shows that state-owned enterprises have a positive adjustment effect on the causal relationship between policy uncertainty and firm innovation, indicating that state-owned enterprises have a stronger ability to resist the risk of policy uncertainty. In addition, the higher the level of urban industrialization development, the more negative and significant impact of policy uncertaintyon firm innovation, indicating that policy uncertainty is not conducive to firm innovationinregions with higher levels of industrialization.

       

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