中国军民融合度测算:理论与实证

    The Evaluation of China's Civil-military Integration Degree: Theory and Evidence

    • 摘要: 军民融合度的测算一直是理论界和政策界面临的难题。以军、民两部门经济增长模型为基础,利用国防建设和经济建设两个经济部门要素产出差值,构建军民融合度的测算方法。基于中国1952-2015年的宏观经济数据,采用结构计量的方法,对中国1952-2015年的军民融合度进行了计算。研究发现:以军民分割的二元体制时期为参照点,中国的军民融合度在不断上升,其上升速率呈现出边际递减的规律,2015年中国的军民融合度达到了90%。

       

      Abstract: The evaluation of the development of civil-military integration has always been a difficult problem for both the theoretical and policy circles. Based on two sector economic growth model, we made a more accurate and objective measurement of the degree of China's civil-military integration in different periods. Based on the macroeconomic data of China from 1952 to 2015, the civil military integration degree of different periods in China was calculated by means of structural econometric model. The study found that China's military and civilian integration is rising constantly, with the period of military-civil dual system as the reference point, with a diminishing rate of rise. In 2015, China's military and civilian integration reached 90%.

       

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