产业共性技术扩散中政府作用最优力度分析——基于变换的Bass模型

    An Analysis of the Optimal Effect of Government in the Diffusion of Industrial General Purpose Technologies—Based on the Transformed Bass Model

    • 摘要: 基于一定理论假设将Bass模型中技术扩散的内部影响因素和外部影响因素分别与市场作用和政府作用对应起来,并着眼于政府作用对市场作用的“挤出”效应建立起政府作用与市场作用之间的函数关系,以此来对Bass模型进行变换,使其能刻画政府作用对产业共性技术扩散速度和时间路径的影响。基于变换的Bass模型,以最大化技术扩散速度为目标构建最优化问题以求得政府作用最优力度,由最优化问题可知政府作用对市场作用的“挤出”效应越大,最优政府作用力度就应该越小。还基于相关数据进行了数值模拟分析,并且验证了模型的有效性。研究认为:由于存在政府干预对市场作用的“挤出”效应,在促进产业共性技术扩散中需要把握最优的干预力度即政府作用最优力度,在量化政府作用和市场作用的基础上,求解出来的政府作用最优力度系数可为政府有效和适当干预技术扩散提供理论上的一个尺量。

       

      Abstract: Based on certain theoretical assumptions, the internal and external factors of technology diffusion in the Bass model were respectively related to the role of the market and the role of the government, and the functional relationship between the government role and the market role was established by focusing on the“crowd-out” effect of the role of the government on the market. The functional relationship between the two was used to transform the Bass model so that it can portray the influence of the government's role on the diffusion speed and time path of the industrial General Purpose Technologies. Based on the transformed Bass model, the optimization was constructed with the goal of maximizing the diffusion rate of technology in order to obtain the optimal effect of the government. From the optimization, it was known that the greater the“crowd-out” effect of the government role on the market, the smaller the optimal effect of the government. The article also carried out numerical simulation based on relevant data and verified the validity of the model. The study argues that due to the“crowd-out” effect of government intervention on the market, it is necessary to grasp the optimal intervention force, that is, the optimal effect of the government in promoting the diffusion of industrial General Purpose Technologies, and on the basis of quantifying the effects of government and the market, the optimal effect coefficient of government solved can provide a theoretical measure for the government's intervening in the diffusion of technologies effectively and properly.

       

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