基于TIMES模型的客运交通低碳化研究——以北京市为例

    Research on Low-carbon Passenger Transport based on TIMES Model—A Case Study From Beijing

    • 摘要: 为研究低碳城市环境下居民的客运交通出行, 以综合能源优化模型——TIMES(The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System)模型为分析工具, 构建客运交通模型。该模型考虑了出行成本、出行选择行为、碳减排目标等的影响, 同时以北京市为例, 设计基准情景和3个参考情景并对不同情景进行分析和讨论。结果显示:当减少出行时间投资成本非常高时, 居民很大程度上通过小汽车来满足居民出行需求。在CO2排放限制情景下, 小汽车出行需求不断下降, 道路公交和轨道交通出行需求稳步上升。基于上述结果得出北京市客运交通低碳化发展的对策和建议:即调控出行需求结构;优化交通出行结构;调整交通能源结构;完善交通治理结构。

       

      Abstract: In order to study the passenger transport of the residents under the context of low-carbon city, this paper took the comprehensive energy optimization TIMES(The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System)model as analysis tools to build a passenger transport travel model. This model considered the impacts which included travel cost, travel choice behavior and carbon-reduction targets. At the same time, it took Beijing as an example, designed baseline scenario and three reference scenarios, and then analyzed and discussed different scenarios. The results showed that residents tend to meet demand of travel by car to a large degree when they can reduce travel time with very high investment cost. Under the circumstances of emissions of restricted CO2, the demand of car travel declines continuously, while the demand of travel by bus and rail rises steadily. Based on the above results, the paper puts forward four policy suggestions to promote the development of low-carbon passenger transport in Beijing:to regulate the structure of travel demand;to optimize the structure of transport travel;to adjust the structure of transport energy;to improve the structure of transport governance.

       

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